…a KHOU poll tells us that 2/3 of Houston voters are undecided in the race for Houston Mayor. Even with this fact in mind, the results are as follows:
In the poll, Houston Controller Annise Parker leads among the four main candidates, with 13.2% of respondents telling us they plan to vote for her. Former city attorney Gene Locke is behind Parker, but within the margin of error, at 9.6%. City Council member Peter Brown has 5.2% support, and Harris County Board of Education member Roy Morales has the backing of 2.8% of likely voters.
Once those called received a tiny bit of information, the numbers changed.
In the so-called “informed voter” questionnaire, which simulates what might happen once voters become familiar with the candidates, Annise Parker remains in front with 15.8% of the vote. Locke is next with 13.6%, followed by Morales at 12.8%, and Brown with 10.2%.
But that means that only those who were “informed” know a little bit more. That hardly puts a dent into the rest of the “undecideds” who didn’t get a call.
Does this mean that if a candidate intends to become known, they will have to start reaching voters one-on-one, instead of through a mayoral forum? And can they cover that much ground in two months? And have all the campaign organizing efforts and staff changes been for naught? In other words, can mayoral candidates energize the electorate in two months? Or will they just concentrate on competing for that 1/3 that seems to care?
Not suprisingly, dueling press releases using this polling information to their advantage was the norm the other day. Ultimately, no one campaign has made real progress toward closing the deal, but obviously, this is the first real snapshot that will give the campaigns a point from which to begin the quest toward their respective “winning” strategies.
Although Annise Parker did begin this race with some name recognition, as did Peter Brown, there is much more for them to do. As far as Gene Locke is concerned, “the experts” have said he had a built-in base. Remember this?
…as the only African American candidate in the race, he can likely count on a base of black voter support November 3…
Since I have not found what the percentage of African Americans polled was (or any other consitituency group), one would still have to consider that what “the experts” are saying didn’t translate to much in this poll, either. The same goes for the Latinos, who some say might amount to 12% of the overall turnout. Will the big-Latino-name endorsements help?
Still, as a supporter of Annise Parker, I would like to see more of an effort toward seeking out votes from those constituencies that “the experts” seem to be giving away.
I must agree with Kuff about the direct mail that may begin soon. Greg adds his thoughts about the KHOU poll.
