My friend Greg Wythe presents an alternative map which I hope brings all sides in the redistricting process together, at least toward developing the best possible opportunities all around.
That 36.5% CVAP number for District J Hispanics isn’t the strongest situation on earth. It represents a very hard-earned opportunity district, but one where there are at least votes to be found. Considering that the starting point is two “opportunities” with 23% and 25% Hispanic population at the CVAP level, I’d rather take 36%. And given the conservativeness of CVAP numbers for growing demographic groups, I feel quite comfortable in suggesting to anyone that the district is fairly close to 40-40 Anglo/Hispanic today.
There is little doubt that the administration’s first map left a lot to be desired by some, especially when the population shift is attributed to Hispanics. Even where there are large pockets of Hispanic population, even drawing a 70% Hispanic population district (in the District F area, for example) would leave a CVAP so low that the community would hardly be able to effect the outcome of an election, much less elect a candidate of their choosing. So, we really do need to work toward where the opportunity is best represented.
Greg sums up a redraw of District J quite well:
Again, a win in District J would be a hard-earned opportunity, but it represents an opportunity that can be fought for, as opposed to one that is non-existant today. The right candidate with some Anglo crossover appeal and ability to raise some money can win J. The only potential for A and F, as proposed, is if a Hispanic Republican runs. But even that didn’t help the one candidate like that in District F during the 2009 election.
As I had said previously, a map that provides a combination of representation and power-sharing is more effective in the long-run. The Latino population will continue to grow, especially Citizen Voting Age Population, and as the population continues to spread around the City, opportunities will exist to work toward cross-over appeal across constituencies, creating new allies and strengthening ties to old allies. If anything, it provides a better bet on cross-over appeal city-wide, which is where we really should be at this point in Houston.
I guess I better start watching the public hearing on HTV.




