The most recent Pew Hispanic poll on various issues found some interesting data, including the fact that Latinos still like Democrats–a lot! Even as President Obama’s number tank a bit, pitted against some of the “top” Republicans in the running, Latinos still vote Obama by some pretty good margins. Still, one has to wonder how energetic that Latino vote is–that’s my biggest worry as we begin the 2012 race.
Although Latinos poll strongly in favor of comprehensive immigration reform, they resoundingly slam President Obama on his deportation policies. My advice to Democratic candidates (and their handlers) is to tread lightly when trying to impress some with “security” rhetoric that either attacks Latinos and immigrants or gives President Obama credit for deporting 1 million people, mostly Latinos.
I mean, it wouldn’t be a bad “defense” against what will be the usual racially charged attacks against Democrats for what they say is “weakness” on immigration, but seeing how Republicans have gone so far to the right on the issue, and their policies have failed various states (Arizona, Georgia, Alabama), Democrats really have nothing to gain and much to lose by going to the right on the issue.
What I have stated historically is that Latinos are just like anyone else when it comes to our top issues. Usually, Latinos don’t become “single issue” voters unless Republicans are increasing their hateful rhetoric. And the Pew poll found those three issues when it comes to Latinos:
Half identify jobs as extremely important to them personally, followed closely by education (49%) and health care (45%). These top three reflect the same three issues Hispanic registered voters identified as most important in 2010 (Lopez, 2010) and in 2008 (Lopez and Minushkin, 2008).
So, given that Republicans will probably go crazy on Latinos and immigration, Democrats really have to be ready for the big 3 issues plus one. And how Democrats respond will be crucial, taking into consideration 2008 promises made and the reality of the first term. Because according to the poll, it seems Latinos do know the difference.
And no, this election is not all about Latinos, but they could be the difference–nationally. Just ask Harry Reid.
