Tag Archives: carol alvarado

Run-Off in SD-6

Looks like the Special Election to replace the late, great Senator Mario Gallegos turned out to be all about Sylvia Garcia and Carol Alvarado.

Garcia started out with a slightly stronger show in ballots by mail and even better in the in-person early vote to get her close to 50%. But it was Alvarado whose campaign made sure the Election Day vote was close, thus ensuring the run-off. In other words, no knock-out punch for Garcia in Round 1.

All in all, 5.64% of the 292,000 voters in SD-6 showed, which was slightly higher than I had predicted. Now, folks can start guessing whether there will be an increase in interest given that there are now only two, or if the usual thing will happen–even less voters will show up in Round 2.

I won’t go into any analysis because there’s not much to put under the microscope. I wake up on this Sunday morning just too damn cynical because when you look really look at things, the only winners were the the political and media consultants.

Oh yeah, and Joaquin Martinez, who I hear had an excellent celebration, along with mariachis!

Maybe Kuff has a less cynical view of things.

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SD-6 – ELECTION DAY – SATURDAY

Well, it’s Saturday, January 26, and according to Rick Perry, today is the day you get to vote in the Senate District 6 Special Election. You missed early voting, but you get one final shot at picking your next State Senator, but you need to vote in your neighborhood polling location.

Need to find your polling location? HarrisVotes has a cool tool where you just punch in your address and voila!, you get your location and a sample ballot! Click on the image below to get there. Polls are open from 7am to 7pm. Do your duty!

FindPoll

SD-6 More Money Pours In (and Out!)

Well, if the first report did not tell you this was an expensive race, then the 8-day report will knock you out.

In the last few weeks (up until last week), Sylvia Garcia raised another another $177,000 (including recent telegram reports in the run-up to Election Day), and has spent almost $300,000.  Garcia had $228,000 in the bank a week ago. The biggie donation was over $80,000 in-kind from Texas Organizing Project PAC, which endorsed Garcia and is doing a lot of field campaigning (that amount not included in final expense amount). Back to Basics PAC also provided a $10,000 in-kind contribution for research. Expenses include some big outlays for mail pieces and more media (I think I noticed over $150K of all that), but one that I found the most interesting was a January 10th expense to Lake Partners for another poll (wish I knew the results of that!). Otherwise, it’s salaries, field, consultants and other expenses.

For Carol Alvarado, another $199,000 was raised (including telegram reports up till today), with $314,000 spent. And a week ago, she had 109,000 left to spend. Some biggie expenses included a couple of huge media buys totaling  over $200,000; a campaign mailing at almost $30,000; various outlays to what I think are field expenses; then the usual expenses on consultants, staff, and campaign needs.

The contributions that popped out most for both was one each from Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee. Otherwise, it was lawyers, unions, businesses and individuals for both of them; although, it would seem Alvarado has a huge lead with big business PACs.

A DC-tip-of-the-sombrero goes to Joaquin Martinez who reported over $5,000 raised–100% from individuals. Rodolfo “Rudy” Reyes reports over $16,000 in loans for the race, and he had mentioned he was using his own money to run at a recent event. The other candidates didn’t report anything eye-catching.

Early voting finished yesterday with 8,245 cast, including 2,876 ballots by mail. Election Day is Saturday, 7 to 7 at your neighborhood polling location. If you live in SD-6, go to the Harris Votes website, type in your address and find your location and sample ballot.

People are asking for projections. I kind of agree with Kuff.

With tongue firmly in cheek, I’d suggest that between 40 and 50 percent of the vote in this race will be cast early, so on the extremely optimistic assumption that there will be about 9,000 votes total cast early, we’re looking at an over/under of about 20,000 – say between 18,000 and 22,500, to be obnoxious about it. If we’re closer to 8,000 votes cast by tomorrow, lower those endpoints to 15,000 and 20,000.

I didn’t see any major expenses for the usual ballot by mail experts in the latest reports, so, I’m wondering if there will be a final push to contact those other 4,000+ mail ballot holders. Otherwise, let’s hope for a big election day.

Update:  Kuff has money and projections. In fact, he changed up his projections on me!

With four more days for mail ballots to arrive, I’d guess the number will ultimately be about 8,500 when the first results are posted Saturday evening. As such, my official guess for total turnout is between 17,000 and 22,000.

I’ll be a rebel and stay with original projections of between 15,000 and 20,000. PDiddie has more, too.

Today in SD-6 News

Garcia Earns Houston GLBT Caucus Nod

Former Commish Sylvia Garcia earned one of the most coveted organizational endorsements last night, that of the Houston GLBT Caucus. Garcia had earned the recommendation over Carol Alvarado after a close vote by the Caucus screening committee. The ensuing organizational vote showed that both Garcia and Alvarado are the group’s favorite candidates out of the eight in the running.

Make Your Vote Count!

Because the County is telling us that, along with the tens of thousands being spent by the candidates, your tax dollars will be footing the bill for the special election to the tune of $825,000 if an election and run-off are held.  That’s a good investment in democracy in my opinion, but a good turnout will add value to whomever is elected–that value being the power of the people. Su voto es su voz–speak loudly, starting on January 9th. (Early vote locations are at the link, too.)

Stay Tuned for More

Yours truly has been invited to appear on LatinoTalk TV on Monday at 6PM and I have accepted. The big topic is none other than SD-6. Should be a fun and informative discussion. Click on the link to find your channel!

Inbox: SD6 Election Timeline

The Harris County Democratic Party Chair Lane Lewis sent out a timeline of what to expect for the SD6 Special Election, now that Perry actually set a date.

Candidates for this special election must file the Application for a Place on the Ballot (Special Election to Fill a Vacancy) with the Secretary of State by 5:00 pm on December 26, 2012. Early voting runs form Wednesday, January 9, 2013 to Tuesday, January 22, 2013.

Timeline 

December 2012

  • December 14, 2012 – First day to apply for Ballot by Mail
  • December 26, 2012, 5:00pm – Last day to file for a place on the Ballot
  • December 27, 2012 – Last day to register to vote
  • December 31, 2012 – 30-day campaign finance report due (tentative)

January 2013

  • January 9, 2013 – First day of Early Voting
  • January 15, 2013 – Semiannual finance report due
  • January 18, 2013 – Last day to apply for Ballot by Mail (Received, not Postmarked)
  • January 18, 2013 – 8-day campaign finance report due (tentative)
  • January 22, 2013 – Last day of Early Voting
  • January 26, 2013 – Election Day

One interesting tidbit.

HCDP will not be taking a position on any Democratic Candidate nor will it be providing any favorable resources to one candidate over another.  All paid staff of Harris County Democratic Party is prohibited from making any public endorsements, financial contributions, or expressing public favoritism for any particular Democratic candidate.

That’s a good reminder.

Obviously, if you’re thinking about running make sure you look at the residency requirements and other qualifications. And if you do decide to run, make sure you file your Texas Ethics Commission campaign treasurer’s appointment and complete your reports. These are the kinds of things bloggers like to look at.