There are a couple of items going around that really deal some bad news for the Republicans.
First, the DC Federal Court panel has ruled against the Texas’ discriminatory redistricting maps. The GOPers are sure to appeal to the Supreme Court of the United States, and it seems the elections will continue since the lawsuit is about the maps as drawn by the Texas Legislature and not the maps we are using now, as drawn by the San Antonio federal court. In a second post, Li says the boundaries for some could be changed for the election–or at least be possible.
On the other hand, it is certainly possible to see a move to adjust those interim maps in the San Antonio court. For example, CD-23 arguably could be restored to its benchmark configuration fairly easily. Similar arguments might also be made with respect to HD 117 and 149, which are wholly contained in their respective counties. But that’s a call that redistricting plaintiffs in San Antonio will have to make.
The opinion regarding CD-23 is particularly telling. The panel felt that Republicans did everything possible to dilute Hispanic voting strength by switching out active Latino voters for non-active Latino voters. The numbers looked the same, but the ability for Latinos to elect a candidate of their choosing was purposely diluted.
Republicans Can’t Catch A Break With Latinos
The old and failed “You’re conservative like us” plan to lure Latinos to the Republicans seems to be failing–still. As Tea Partiers double-down against issues like a woman’s right to choose, recent polling by Latino Decisions finds that social issues are not even showing up on Latino political radars.
For Latinos the issue that matters most is the economy followed closely by immigration. And on both of these issues the vast majority of Latinos support a more progressive agenda. Moral issues such as abortion and gay marriage simply don’t appear on the Latino political radar. The GOP and Latinos may be simpatico on issues of abortion but this is of little help, social issues are not what sway Latinos in the voting booth.
Now, the Republicans might try to score points on jobs and the economy, but when Romney is attacking on welfare, while defending tax cuts for the wealthy, well, I’d predict that none of that will cause Latinos to switch course. The latest polls show Latinos supporting Obama with a 35 and 40 point spread over Romney.
And if that weren’t enough, the one issue that caused President Obama’s “comeback” with Latinos, Deferred Action, should be ended by Romney and the Republicans, according to Texas’ Ted Cruz.
The key for Obama, then, is turnout. And since Republican leader Boehner is hoping Latinos and African Americans don’t show up to vote, the Latino and African American response is obvious: SHOW UP!